So
last time I talked about how gay marriage might help the church. But
I'm still politically against gay marriage because I think it will
likely hurt the state. Now if the possible good outcome for the church I
talked a out last time happens at all it won't happen all at once when
the law changes but will develop gradually in response to the new
conditions. I think the bad results for the state will be even slower
and more gradual. But I think this makes the problem worse not better.
If the negative effects were seen immediately there might be some chance
to back peddle. However I think these effects will only become apparent
after they are widespread and irreversible.
In
this post Sarah Hoyt makes a clear logical argument as to why gays
would want “marriage” not just a civil union. She makes a point that
there is a weight of tradition, that the word encourages stability and
enforces a public commitment. She points out the problem of hetero
couples using civil unions for less serious commitments.
But
right now the state does not strongly enforce the permanency of
marriage. And we are seeing a high divorce rate with as many as 50% of
all marriages ending in divorce. We have celebrities who throw big
weddings and are getting divorced before you have time to turn around.
People tisk and speculate how committed they really were in the first
place. But there is no hint that there is or even should be any actual
enforceable consequences to making a frivolous marriage.
It
is in America's best interest, however, to be able to promote serious commitment with policy. It's also good to know when someone
doesn't have a committed partner they can lean on and might need more
help in hard times. But there's no way for a bureaucracy to look into
the heart and detect a serious commitment. So we have built a large
accumulation of policy based on using a legal marriage as a proxy for
commitment.
There
are two reasons this has worked as a proxy for commitment. The first is
that the state used to enforce the commitment by making it very
difficult to get out of and by treating the commitment as legally
binding. This is increasingly no longer the case. The second is that
churches and other religious organizations presented it as a grave
commitment to God, who could not only say you need to stay married but
could look into hears and would know if you weren't really doing your
best to love, honor and cherish the other person. This formed the basis
for a shared social consensus for the serious of marriage and a shared
expectation of the gravity of beginning or ending one.
Even
if most formally withdraw from civil marriages in general there will be
significant churches at least some civil marriages won't be recognized
as religiously valid. It will often be those churches most interested in
doing moral enforcement of marriage norms were what they mean by
marriage and what the state now means be marriage are obviously not the
same. This will mean they have the effect of eroding rather than
encouraging shared general consensus. We're already losing shared social consensus on a lot of things. While it will take time
for this erosion to take place we will be headed in the direction of
legal marriage being just a bundle of tax and benefit implication that
should taken up and put down when convenient.
We
will no longer be able to use marriage policy to effectively promote
stable family formation or determine who needs support. I can think of
ways to try to force marriage to still equal serious romantic commitment
but I can also see serious problems with all of them. I think the only
realistic possibility is political marriage policy becoming set of
vestigial loopholes that are clinically exploited. And this would be bad
for America.